The term "black swan" was originally commonly used in sixteenth century Europe to describe a sense of improbability. Since no one reads, hears, or sees black swans, things that are improbable can be related to the chances of someone finding a black swan - an apparent metaphor.
The first chapter of the book introduces the idea of the Black Swan theory, and Tareb continues to argue that history is basically opaque - a black box of mystery. This is because no one can truly know which events in history led to the specifics of a modern era.
The second chapter gives an in-depth detail of a Black Swan event. A neuroscientist published a book on the internet, hoping for some interest. Eventually, a publishing company noticed her, published her book, and the neuroscientist became famous. The chances of this actually happening were very slim, but it did indeed happen, therefore it is a Black Swan event.
The author of this book consistently explains that she does not like large distinctions, because the world is much too complicated to divide into fact and fiction.
The book continues to describe mental ideas, such as how past performance cannot, in fact, be an indicator for future performance. A turkey is used as an example, because they appear to have no sense of past and present.
Eventually, Tareb explains that all of these little topics all merge into the single theory of the Black Swan. Improbability in itself is improbable, so, therefore, does it really exist?
