Essay Questions

What is the metaphorical meaning of the title ‘The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Importable’?

The title of the book is suggestive because it represents the impossibility of an event from happening. For instance, the 'black swan' was a common phrase in Europe in the 19th century that was used to represent implausibility. People in ancient times knew that finding a black swine was impractical. Therefore, the black swan was used to describe improbability. Consequently, the title of this book figuratively has a hidden meaning.

What are the two main confines of probabilistic psychiatry, according to the author?

The randomness of the black swans reveals two main limitations of probabilistic analysis. Firstly, the author describes the black swans, which is a past event that is rarely witnessed. For instance, even the latest technologies in place cannot predict when the next black swan is likely to be seen. The heavy reliance on probability and statistics often leads to unreliable predictions. Secondly, computer-generated analyses are input programs by human beings that only provide projections based on human understanding. Unfortunately, more often than not, these computer-generated results are wrong. Therefore, probabilistic analysis is not always correct because it is based on probability and human predictions.

What is the symbolic connotation of the 'Black Swan'?

The black swan is symbolically used in the book to represent the occurrence of the impossible. The book essentially talks of the appearance of the white swans that were common in the 17th century. People were used to seeing white swans, and there is no single individual who thought that black swans exist. However, the appearance of the black swan represented the possibility of unfeasibility. The black swan also explains the great US stock market crash in 1987 because nobody thought it could happen.