“When you develop your opinions on the basis of weak evidence, you will have difficulty interpreting subsequent information that contradicts these opinions, even if this new information is obviously more accurate.”
Taleb focuses on the phenomena of ‘black swans’ which are basically events that cannot be scientifically or statistically forecasted or predicted. He argues that techniques of predicting likely events such as stock performance are based on inadequate evidence. In that depending on a generated system based on past events to forecast the future is majorly flawed and unreliable. Thus, the assertion highlights that when future information arise that do not align with established criterion then it will be considered an anomaly. Subsequently, deciphering the event or information will be challenging which will prompt experts to sideline it.
“The problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know.”
Taleb criticizes experts for restricting their forecasting models and risk mitigation on criteria based on likely occurrences. He takes notice of how experts have consistently come short in terms of economic ‘black swans’ because of their reliance on faulty models and risk management. Taleb stresses the significance of loosening restrictions of what is considered probable or improbable. The statement is an accurate assessment of an issue that has been frequently observed throughout history. In that time and time again a ‘black swan’ event takes place disproving previous assumptions prompting a reevaluation.
